Latest posts
-
UK Borrows £16 Billion in June — and Runs £2.7 Billion Ahead of the OBR Forecast
June borrowing fell sharply year on year, but the fiscal-year total of £57.6 billion is already £2.7 billion above forecast, with debt at 94.9% of GDP – the highest since the early 1960s.
-
From the Pump to the Power Bill: What Oil Near $90 Really Means for Household Budgets
Crude near $88 reaches households twice — first at the pump within weeks, then through energy bills, food prices and borrowing costs over the year ahead. Here is how the chain works.
-
From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes: The Six-Week Repricing of Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve
Futures markets now put one-in-four odds on a Fed hike next week, and one major bank forecasts three by December. Inside the fastest monetary reversal in years.
-
No Quick Retreat: How the Gulf Tanker War Re-Anchored Oil Near $90 and Reopened the Inflation Question
Tanker attacks, a strike on Kuwaiti infrastructure and a hardened U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have ended hopes of a quick fall in crude — and complicated a decisive week for central banks.
-
Jobless Claims, Home Sales and Flash PMIs: The Three Numbers That Will Make Up the Fed’s Mind
With Fed officials in pre-meeting blackout, this week’s data does the talking: claims at a two-month low of 208,000, June home sales under 6.5% mortgages, and Friday’s first look at July business activity.
-
Ten Days That Could Reset Global Interest Rates: ECB Decides Thursday, the Fed Follows on July 29
For the first time since the 2022-23 inflation fight, the major central banks are debating hikes in unison. The ECB is expected to hold at 2.25% on Thursday, while markets treat the Fed’s July 29 decision as a near coin flip.
-
Oil Retreats From $90 as Iran Signals Openness to Talks — but the Energy Shock Is Already Spreading
Brent eased to around $88 after Tehran acknowledged mediator proposals for talks with Washington. With Hormuz traffic down, U.S. gasoline back at $4 a gallon and inflation forecasts rising, the energy shock is reaching far beyond the Gulf.