Latest posts
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From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes: The Six-Week Repricing of Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve
Futures markets now put one-in-four odds on a Fed hike next week, and one major bank forecasts three by December. Inside the fastest monetary reversal in years.
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No Quick Retreat: How the Gulf Tanker War Re-Anchored Oil Near $90 and Reopened the Inflation Question
Tanker attacks, a strike on Kuwaiti infrastructure and a hardened U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have ended hopes of a quick fall in crude — and complicated a decisive week for central banks.
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Jobless Claims, Home Sales and Flash PMIs: The Three Numbers That Will Make Up the Fed’s Mind
With Fed officials in pre-meeting blackout, this week’s data does the talking: claims at a two-month low of 208,000, June home sales under 6.5% mortgages, and Friday’s first look at July business activity.
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Oil Retreats From $90 as Iran Signals Openness to Talks — but the Energy Shock Is Already Spreading
Brent eased to around $88 after Tehran acknowledged mediator proposals for talks with Washington. With Hormuz traffic down, U.S. gasoline back at $4 a gallon and inflation forecasts rising, the energy shock is reaching far beyond the Gulf.